From Ishola Olakunle
Nigerians are extremely religious people. Not specifically in the area of ‘doing good’ but in our FAITH.
Demonstrated in various wishes at the beginning of each year. Our year of redemption. Our year of restoration. Year of multiple blessings, etc. They are not usually based on concrete actions or national policy drives but based on faith.
That has its benefits as it has helped us to cope with extremely challenging environment. Extremely bad economy.
This has influenced our politics. Our campaign are mostly wishes. We don’t look at policies and results. Anyone can promise anything.
This national social culture has helped the political class extremely well. They don’t need to do the difficult job. Just sell illusions not based on reality. Citizens run with it.
Nigeria has no business being poor! I will ensure 24/7 electricity. We must move our citizens out of poverty. I will build $1Tr economy by 2030. We must move the nation from consumption to production.
It is puzzling that extremely knowledgeable Nigerians are fighting over these clichés. Anyone that poses the question; HOW, is anti progress.
The reality is that results are products of deliberate policies. No miracle in political economy.
Our problems are results of deliberate or unconscious policies. Either commission or omissions. We must accurately explain the failings for policy remedies.
Take the issue of electricity. We ought not believe any promise of 24/7 electricity without how to achieve it. We must describe the funding & administrative models. Those would be the parameters to evaluate. Not just how captivating the wishes are.
For instance, how do we move a nation from an importing nation to an export behemoth. We need both monetary and fiscal policies to push exports.
The monetary policy means export must be competitive. Fiscal policies implies spending on infrastructures and direct support to local producers.
Look at two nations that become export behemoths, Mexico & Vietnam. In the 2025 trade report, Mexico was $665B to $664B. Vietnam was $475B to $450B. Exports/Import respectively.
But look at rates management. In 1985, the Mexican peso was o.26/$. By 2000, it was already 9.46 pesos to the $; 97% depreciation. Vietnam Dong was 1.002 to the $ in 1983 but already 14,000 dong to $1 in 2000; 99.99% depreciation. Nigeria from 2000 to 2025, official rate depreciated by 94%.
It isn’t necessarily a ‘strong’ currency that pushes exports. The currency must be appropriately valued to make export competitive. Valuation at market rate will result in moderate inflation and exchange rates.
Also for fiscal policy. The government must raise the necessary funds to spend on infrastructures, rail,
electricity, roads etc. For Mexico government spending to gdp has been above 20%. The worst in OECD but still substantial. Vietnam is relatively above 20%. Nigeria is just around 12%. We may think 12% isn’t too far from 25% but consider the marginal effectiveness of spending in excess of the base 15%.
Yes, our spending is poor due to corruption. However, with utmost fidelity, there would be little macroeconomic difference.
This is just to demonstrate that results are not gotten from wishes. Concrete policy drivers.
So, it is amusing how sometimes we abuse our leaders but call for the same policies.
Extremely satisfying to punch PMB. Gives social media satisfaction. But what were his failings? He omitted fiscal & monetary reforms. He talked about corruption but concentrated on punishment after the fact & personal example, without preventive policies.
He loved a ‘strong’ naira from the point of view of patriotism. Not economic logic. He didn’t want to devalue. He wanted to cleanse the subsidy regime. Took it from ‘fraudulent marketers’ and gave to NNPC as sole importers. He didn’t want to tax the people.
Unfortunately, the monetary & fiscal environments spiralled out of control. He became buts of jokes. Even by those who are advocating his exact policies.
They wanted to remove scam from subsidy before deregulation. PMB attempted that by removing the marketers. They would devalue & defend. Emefiele did that by devaluing from N360/$ to N420/$ but he ran behind the curve. If we had attempted to devalue and defend in 2023, the likelihood would be at N650 to N750. We would still be chasing the wind.
We need to ask for details of how political wishes would be realised. It isn’t enough to say Nigeria has no business being poor. We have no devine right also to be rich. We must create the riches. How do we intend to deliver it?
©️ Tayo Ayodeleh
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